2006 IMBCS schedule update and business meeting summary

Tue January 24 2006
Posted Jan 24, 2006
6,643

In weather prediction, a quasi-frequentist interpretation looks possible at a first glance. A forecast that says "70% chance of rain tomorrow" actually means "we think that of the N times we make this statement, roughly 0.7N times will have rain". However, there is nothing magical about this particular assignment of probabilities to these N days. A better forecast system might segregate the N days into 0.5N forecasts of "90% chance of rain" and 0.5N of "50% chance of rain". A badly calibrated forecasting system might say "50% chance of rain" for all of them :-) In each case, tomorrow's weather is actually a deterministic event, entirely determined by the current atmospheric state, and it's either going to rain or it isn't. The decision to assign a 70% probability to a particular forecast cannot based on any fundamental randomness in the atmospheric system (because there is none), and the hypothetical "probability distribution of the current atmospheric state" from which a forecasting system attempts to predict the future, does not exist as some physical reality, but only as a useful theoretical construct to describe our ignorance. In other words, I spoke with Troy Tellinghuisen the other day. He told me that the bursitis in his shoulders is telling him that it is going to rain on April 16 (which also happens to be Easter Sunday) and that he recommends we reschedule the race at Seven Oaks from April 16 to April 23. So, it is my hope, that this will be the last revision to the IMBCS schedule for the 2006 season. Here is the schedule in its entirety: April 9 – IMBCS #1 – Sylvan Island, Moline, IL April 23 – IMBCS #2 – Seven Oaks Ski Area, near Boone, IA (July 30 rain date) May 7 - IMBCS #3 - Camp Ingawanis, Waverly, IA May 20 – IMBCS #4 – Lewis and Clark Monument, Council Bluffs, IA June 4 - IMBCS #5 - Geode State Park, near Lowell, IA June 17/18 - IMBCS #6 - stage race at Sockum Ridge State Park, near Washington, IA June 25 - IMBCS #7 - Kendall Young Classic, Webster City, IA July 2 - IORCA / Iowa NORBA State Championship, Seven Oaks Ski Area, Boone, IA July 15 - IORCA Iowa Games MTB, Peterson Pits, near Ames, IA July 22 - IORCA 12 Hours of Cedar Valley August 13 - IMBCS #8 - Sugarbottom Rec Area, North Liberty, IA September 2/3 - IORCA 24 Hours of Seven Oaks September 10 - IMBCS #9 - Sycamore TT, Des Moines, IA September 23/24 - IMBCS #10 - stage race at Seven Oaks, Boone, IA A few highlights from the IORCA business meeting: For the 2006 season, we will be scraping the IORCA rulebook and we will use the NORBA rulebook from now on. In addition to using the NORBA rulebook, IORCA will also include a few modifications, such as the points structure, age categories and NO HEADPHONES, EARBUDS, IPODS, CB RADIOS, TV’S, DVD PLAYERS, TURNTABLES, ETC. Some of the series races for 2006 (not all of them) will be NORBA sanctioned events. This means that you will either need to purchase an annual NORBA license (mandatory for experts) or a one day license for each event. For the 2007 season, the entire series will become a NORBA sanctioned series. This has pretty much become a necessity because insurance premiums for race directors is very expensive. Going NORBA will greatly reduce the costs to the race directors, which will in turn help race directors keep their entry fees at a reasonable rate. We are going to score the stage races a little differently this season. They will be scored omnium style, with points being awarded for each stage. Your final placing will be determined from your points total. You will be scored using the series scoring format that will be used for every IMBCS event based on your final overall placing for the stage race. Scores for both stage races will carry the same weight as the eight single day races. We’d like to thank those that attended the meeting, especially the out of towners. Cam Kirkpatrick V.P. – IORCA Urbandale, IA